Who could have imagined a scenario where weekly unemployment applications exceeded 6 million and the stock market yawned?  We are now in the second week in a row of these numbers.  For reference, the week of March 15 had 282,000 initial jobless claims (versus, again, this week’s 6,606,000). These kinds of extremes have become commonplace over the last several...Read More

This week we crossed the line from simple stock market selloff to complete financial market panic. Stocks kept dropping with even the usual bargain hunters staying away. The rush for cash started, which means even U.S. Treasury bonds were being sold. Surprising? Yes. Alarming? No. This initial stage of panic will pass. U.S. Treasuries remain the safest investment option...Read More

According to my last two letters, it seems I’ve managed to be both right and wrong at the same time. In early February, as the coronavirus was starting to make itself globally significant, I mentioned that it might just be the sort of “major disruption” that could set the U.S. economy on a downhill slide...Read More

Never underestimate the ability of the stock market to overreact.  As we enter the week with news of further spread of the Chinese coronavirus, it seems the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 are going to attempt to get halfway to a correction in just one day.  A stock market correction is defined as a drop of 10%...Read More

In the last week we have seen major moves in the stock market (which most people notice) and, subsequently, the bond market (which most people don’t). Most of these moves are due to concern over how the virus outbreak in China will affect the world economy. Why, you may wonder, would a virus affect the economy? The virus itself...Read More