According to my last two letters, it seems I’ve managed to be both right and wrong at the same time. In early February, as the coronavirus was starting to make itself globally significant, I mentioned that it might just be the sort of “major disruption” that could set the U.S. economy on a downhill slide...Read More

In the last week we have seen major moves in the stock market (which most people notice) and, subsequently, the bond market (which most people don’t). Most of these moves are due to concern over how the virus outbreak in China will affect the world economy. Why, you may wonder, would a virus affect the economy? The virus itself...Read More

With good economic news prevailing and comments from several Federal Reserve governors, bets for a rate hike at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting have nearly tripled since Tuesday morning.  Currently, the market is close to 90% sure that there will be a 0.25 percent rate increase in mid-March. Indeed, there are fewer...Read More