According to my last two letters, it seems I’ve managed to be both right and wrong at the same time. In early February, as the coronavirus was starting to make itself globally significant, I mentioned that it might just be the sort of “major disruption” that could set the U.S. economy on a downhill slide...Read More

This is the way the expansion ends, “not with a bang but a whimper.”[1] Though T.S. Eliot’s oft-quoted poem isn’t actually about our economic expansion, its final line does ring true in this case.  As we mentioned in our last letter, this interest rate cycle has been a wimp itself, so it is no surprise we...Read More